Market Updates

I'd been looking at various forms of investing for awhile. Now with the possibility of a US recession becoming more real, what kind of markets would be the most viable?

Personally, I still think trading is the most viable, and especially so for trading Forex. Now, that is not to say that I had been profiting on my FX trades. Quite the contrary, I'm actually losing or have lost quite abit. Its part of the learning process I guess. So why do I think FX is the most viable? There's good volatility, and there's always a trade no matter which market is rallying or dropping.

The other tools however, aren't doing too well. My mutual funds are steadily dropping, but at least my Financial Advisor (FA) had the sense to shift half my portfolio into bonds for the time being. This is a good time to see if Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is effective. Unfortunately, DCA will take awhile to see results, sometimes as long as 7 years.

Stocks are even worse I think. Just look at the US markets. With the Fed making rates cuts of 125 basis points within a span of 8 short days, the markets are not showing signs of recovery. Even though the Dow did rally a short while when the Fed announced the rate cuts (of 50 basis points), the markets eventually gave up its gains before the close. This, I think, shows how negative the market sentiments are. Will this overflow to Singapore and Asian markets? I think it already has to some degree. Stocks all over the globe are experiencing some form of shock due to what's happening in the US. There are talks however, that markets are decoupling from the US economy, and even our Government says that Singapore will see growth this year. Markets are unpredictable.... lets see how it turns out.

P.S. For updates on my forex trading, visit my Forex blog.

Updates

Nothing much going on in my life right now. I'm in my new division, adapting to new work, new bosses, new colleagues and new expectations amongst many other new things. I've only been on the job for 1 month and I'm not really sure how well or how fast I'm adapting.

The learning curve is pretty steep I guess, but definately more gentle than for one who is completely new to the organisation. The people are nice, and my boss has been patient too (dispite some previous fears). But must always buck up because there's always a limit to patience and I pray I don't hit it. ha.

Having some struggle in terms of time management and effort put in. I now want to do several things. Learn about trading, keep up with friends, keep fit and healthy, may be take up CFA, and do my job well. However, my job now requires quite some attention, and I don't know how to manage the expectations of the new division just yet. I want to be able to handle the workload, react promptly, etc, and yet still maintain progress in the other above areas. Thing is, it has been wearing me out alittle this month. Perhaps its like Xun said, I'm new to the job and it takes some time to get settled in and then perhaps I'll be able to better manage my time.

I guess its expected to have some shake-ups in terms of time management because of the change.... its just uncomfortable to be out-of-control somewhat. I mean, I'd like to be able to schedule my time, allocate work, play, learning, study, social etc properly... but I feel as if work is slowly creeping and taking over (because afterall I need to complete my work, and my colleagues are all very hardworking so I have to at least match up!)

I need to focus on my outcome and work towards it..... now.... WHAT... exactly is this outcome I'm working towards? That... is the question.

Underwater Astonishments

Beautiful and amazing videos of marine life. If the video doesn't work, click here and download the video.

Investing : Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging

After reading up on investments for quite awhile, I realised that there are many schools of thought. Amongst this include those who time the market in an attempt to pick highs or lows, and those who put in a fixed amount of money over long periods of time - a practice called dollar cost averaging (DCA).

People who do DCA believes that markets generally moves up. While that might have been true for the past 30 years or so, people like Pretcher from Elliott Wave Institute believe that the markets are heading for a long term bear market. In such an event, DCA would yield terrible results.

I'm predicting if the markets will move up or down for the next decade. I'll leave that to the experts. But below is an extract from a CNN Money article that I actually agree on with regards to Lump Sum v.s. Dollar Cost Averaging:

"...While I disagree with those that use math to show that dollar cost
averaging delivers superior returns to investing all at once, I am a strong
believer that dollar cost averaging has significant psychological advantages.
You don't have to worry about any worst-case-scenario market timing like the one
described above. If you dollar cost average in over a long period of time,
say two or three years, you are actually more likely to stay in the market. If
the market goes down, you'll feel better you didn't sink it all in at once, and
because you're buying more shares at a lower price...."

Getting Back to Nature

It seems I'd been taking a break from many things this period. I took a break from trading, took a break from reading my books, took a (rather long) break from exercising, took a (even longer) break from climbing.

Despite all these breaks however, somehow, I still don't feel quite that energised. Seems something is lacking still. Somewhere hovering at the back of mind is a desire to go climb some mountain again or something. Considering my lack of fitness these days... it will have to be one of relatively low difficulty.

Wonder if I'll still enjoy these treks now... hmmm...

Do some micro-financing

I was talking about being your own banking on a post sometime back. I decided to do a little micro-financing on www.kiva.org and made some small loans out. One of them will take 12 months to repay, the other 4 months. The minimum sum to loan out each time is USD25.

I really think the whole concept of micro-financing is really cool. And in some ways, it could be a better way of helping the poor compared to just dumping supplies to them (most of which get lost along the way if I'm not wrong). By helping these people do their own businesses instead, that's pretty much helping them to learn how to fish rather than giving them a fish.

You can check out my profile here, and do extend a helping hand if you think this is a meaningful way to do it.

Cheers to a great upcoming 2008!

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year Everyone!

The old has gone and the new is here. I received an SMS from a friend which I thought was rather nice and here it is below:

... In 2008 remember...Life is an adventure, so, break some rules, forgive, love truly, cherish true friends, laugh uncontrollably, enjoy your family n never regret anything that made you smile... Wishing you a blessful 2008.

Hope everyone has a prosperous and happy new year. Good Career progress for those working, greater patience for those teaching, good grades for those studying, greater profits for those investing/trading!